Last Man Standing: What is the Fate of Iran's Proxy Militias in Iraq

al-Hashad al-Sha'bi fighters on parade

What is the future of Iran's proxy militias in Iraq? The militias - known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (al-Hashad al-Sha'bi) - have been wielding extensive political and economic power in Iraq ever since they played an important role, together with Iranian, US and Iraqi forces, in protecting Iraq  and defeating the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq between 2014 and 2019. 

Since HAMAS' surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, there has been a major shift in power relations in the Middle East. Following well over a year of Israeli air and ground attacks, the Gaza War seriously degraded HAMAS' military strength. Hizballah, once the most powerful political and military force in Lebanon, is a shell of its former self.  Syria, formerly Iran's closest Arab ally, is no longer ruled by the al-Asad family. 

With the fall of the al-Asad regime, Iran has lost a critical land bridge which allowed it to extend its political control to the Mediterranean.  The loss HAMAS, Hizballah and Syria has ended Iran's ability to surround its arch-enemy, Israel, with loyal forces. After Iran attacked Israel in May 2024, Israeli airstrikes subsequently degraded Iran's air defenses and seriously damaged its energy sector by destroying natural gas pipelines, creating a severe economic crisis.  

Only Iraq's Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) have avoided the negative consequences of. the Israel-HAMAS War.  While some militias have fired rockets at Israel, the PMUs have largely remained on the sidelines of the conflict. Most of their attention continues to be directed at forcing the United States to withdraw its last troops from Iraq through rocket attacks on Iraqi air bases where US troops are stationed. As the last member of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance, what is its future?

The defeat of the Axis of Resistance With Israel's destruction of Iran's proxies in Gaza and Lebanon and indirectly causing the collapse of the al-Asad regime,.  As a result, the political winds in Iraq are beginning to change. Iraq's Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has stated that it's time for the PMUs to be integrated into the Iraqi Army, something that was supposed to happen several years ago. 

With the government aware that the PMUs' benefactor, Iran, faces serious economic crisis and has lost of much of its regional political clout, now is the time in the view of many of Iraq's political elite to reign in the Tehran regime's local agents. 

In November 2024, following a stark warning from Israel, stop the drone attacks. Fearful of suffering the same fate as HAMAS and Hizballah, the PMUs cut back on their drone attacks on Israel.  The Iraqi government, on the other hand, has tried, without success, to end PMU attacks on the United States Embassy in Baghdad and the airbase where US troops are stationed.

A state within a state  PMUs are despised by much of the Iraqi population.  They promote Iranian interests in Iraq such as the sale of Iranian goods which compete with Iraqi companies.  Militias have seized houses, agricultural land and businesses, and threatened families and lawyers who have attempted regain possession of their property.

In the Jurf al-Sakhr region along the Tigris River in Babel Governorate, the PMUs expelled the local farmers and establish a large limits area which they store illicit goods which are sold on the black market throughout Arab Iraq.  Even Iraq's Prime Minister and Armed Force Chief of Staff are forbidden from entering this area.  

In 2023, the PMUs won 101 of 285 seats in Iraq's Provincial Council elections. Using a carrot and stick, the PMUs used their extensive resources to offer voters jobs in construction and road paving industry, contracts to business interests, government employment to local residents and other bribes.  Candidates who opposed PMU candidates were threatened in an effort to force them to drop out of the elections.  The Leadership and Purpose of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces

Iraqis have responded to PMU corruption by boycotting Iranis goods which they see aas competing with Iraqi products. While Iraqis welcome the 1000s of Iranian pilgrims who visit Iraq's Shi'a shrine cities each year, they resent the PMUs using their politcial power to privilege Iranian products in local markets.

As an example of the kind of corruption in which the PMU is involved, a scandal was recently discovered in which the Islamic University of Lebanon in Beirut had awarded more than a 1000 PMU militia members doctoral degrees in engineering and other specialized degrees.  

The problem with these degrees is that those who received Ph.D.s never attended any classes at the Islamic University of Lebanon.  With 40% of Iraqis living below the poverty level and thousands of Iraqi youth who have graduates but haven't been able to find gainful employment, this type of corruption infuriates the Iraqi people. New Corruption on the Part of the Islamists: More than 1000 Doctorates for al-Hashad al-Sha'bi

Cracks in the PMU alliance The impact of the Gaza War and Iran's economic crisis has seriously undermined the PMUs power in Iraq.  Already three years ago, the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps informed the PMUs that they could no longer count on financial support from Iran given the poor state of its economy. 

With the colapse of the Axis of Resistance and weakened Iran, a schism has developed within the PMU ranks.  Efforts are underway to remove Falih Fayyadh, the PMU commander, from his post.  Qa'is al-Khazali, head of the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqq militia, is using Fayydh's call for a more moderate posture on the PMUs part towards cooperating with the Iraqi government to accuse him of undermining the PMUs' mission.  

US foreign policy in Iraq and Syria What should the Trump administration do to undermine the last militia movement in the so-called Axis of Resistance? First, Trump must abandon the lens through which he views American foreign policy. There is no "deal" to be made in Iraq. Unlike Iram there are no sanctions or tariffs which can be levied on Iraq to rid it of the PMUs.

Second, if Trump wants to eventually eliminate the threat Iran's proxy militias pose to American interests in the Middle East and the region's security, he must maintain current troop levels in Iraq and Syria.  If he withdraws these troops, it will be "penny wise and pound foolish."  Without US forces to support our closest ally in the MENA region, the Syrian Democratic Forces, Islamic State terrorist cells will be able to reestablish bases Eastern Syria.

Third, if the Islamic State establishes more bases in Syria, it will not only strengthen the its attempted comeback there, but facilitate the terrorists' ability to increase its already numerous attacks in North Central Iraq.  While it makes sense to support replacing some US troops  in Iraq with NATO forces, there is no substitute for the logistical and intelligence support the US can provide the Iraqi government.  

Current US forces in Iraq have a lengthy experience fighting the Islamic State terrorists  and training Iraq's counter-terrorism forces.  Should US forces be withdrawn from Iraq, Iran would claim a victory over the "Great Satan."

Equally important, US forces withdrawal from Iraq would encourage Islamic State fighters to increase their attacks in Iraq. They would view such a withdrawal as evidence of American weakness and lack of interest in defending Iraq.  

Precisely when the PMUs are weak isn't the time to strengthen their control of Iraqi politics and its economy.   We need remember that the PMUs achieved their original legitimacy not only from the fatwa Ayatollah 'Ali al-Sistani issued in 2014 justifying their creation, but from their success in preventing Islamic State forces from reaching Baghdad in 2014.With US forces no longer in Iraq, the PMUs can argue that they are needed once again to assure the Islamic State doesn't reestablish itself in Iraq. 

Needless to say, Trump's withdrawal of US forces in Iraq will have a domino effect.  It will also embolden the Islamic State in Syria placing greater pressure on our key ally, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is a large prison camp and other prisons in Eastern Syria which hold over 60,000 Islamic State fighters and their families.

After the Gaza Ceasefire: A New "Trail of Tears" or a March Towards Peace?

The immediate question following the ceasefire in Gaza is whether it will hold. However, the larger question still remains: can Israel and Palestinians come to terms and establish a peaceful solution to the Forever War which has persisted since 1948? Can the elusive goal of a two state solution, where both sides live in peace and security, be realized? Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All

Displaced Palestinians fleeing to Lebanon during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War

Israel and the Palestinians are at a critical juncture. Gaza can either be rebuilt with funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and HAMAS replaced with a joint Palestinian National Authority and Arab states, e.g., Egypt and Jordan, . Or the territory can be seized by the Israeli far-right and the Gazan Palestinians be expelled for the second time in their lives (the first in 1948 when Palestinians along Israel's Mediterranean Coast were forced into the Gaza Strip, then controlled by Egypt).Causes of the 1948 Palestinian expulsion and flight

Unfortunately, HAMAS is still in control in the Gaza Strip which presents a major impediment to moving towards peace. The Arab League should establish an interim administration comprised of Jordan and Egypt.  The Jordanians and Egyptians should make clear to HAMAS that it needs to shed its weapons and then become one of several political parties in Gaza which will win or lose in fair and free elections. If HAMAS refuses, the Arab League should sponsor a military force dispatched to Gaza to remove its weapons and disarm it.

A new "Trail of Tears? The alternative to the scenario just described is the Israeli far-right's plan to either force or have Gazans "voluntarily" evacuate the Gaza Strip. The far right settlers would take control of it. This would constitute a latter day "Trail of Tears," as was implemented during the Andrew Jackson administration in 1830. Native American tribes were removed from their ancestral lands east of the Mississippi River and forced to move westward to government controlled reservations in regions, such as present-day Oklahoma, which were not yet states. 

The brutal HAMAS attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 upended Middle East politics.  Over 1200 Israelis were killed during the attack, and a wrenching hostage crisis ensued with 250 Israelis were seized by HAMAS and taken to Gaza (many of whom died while in captivity). Israeli survivors recount terror at music festival, where Hamas militants killed at least 260 

At least 47,000 Palestinians living in Gaza, mostly women and children, have been killed, although recent excavation of bodies from destroyed buildings will make that figure much higher. Over 80% of the Gaza Strip's buildings and infrastructure has been destroyed by Israel's bombing campaign.

What has the violence over the past 75 years accomplished? Perhaps we should answer this question by invoking the colloquial definition of insanity: "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result." When will more rational heads prevail to end the never ending cycle of violence?

The Gaza War's cost to Israel and the Palestinians Israel has secured its position as nation-state in the Middle East, but at great the cost. While it won all the Arab-Israeli wars, save for the 1956 tripartite invasion of Egypt, it has done less well in conflict with asymmetric forces.  

After invading Lebanon in 1982 to destroy the Palestine Liberation Organization bases in South Lebanon and its leadership in Beirut, Israel was forced to withdraw from the south in 2000 following repeated guerrilla attacks on its forces. The 2006 war with Hizballah ended in a draw. And HAMAS still controls the Gaza Strip following the ceasefire.

With the January 2025 Ceasefire in place, Israeli politics has entered a new phase. The far-right minister of national security, Itamar Ben Gvir, resigned in protest. Bezalel Smotrich, the Minister of Finance, also on the far-right, has threatened to resign as well if the ceasefire becomes permanent. It is unclear whether the Netanyahu government will continue its efforts priro to the HAMAS attack to strip Israel's Supreme Court of its power to declare laws passed by the Knesset (parliament) as unconstitutional.

Tensions have increased between religious and secular Israels as a result of the Gaza War.  The 2024 court order that Haredim (orthodox males who dedicate their lives to religious studies) must join the military provoked outrage among many orthodox rabbis and their followers. The Haredim, who receive state subsidies to conduct their religious studies, are not required to pay taxes and, until now, have been exempt from serving in the armed forces. Given their large families, they will constitute a majority of Israel's population by 2050.

Apart from the technology sector, Israel's economy has suffered a s result of the war.  A large percentage of the employed males, who are overwhelmingly secular and taxpayers, were called up to serve in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).  Economic growth has slowed and the government has faced severe budget constraints to fund the war and the Israelis displaced by the conflict with Hizballah in southern Lebanon along Israel's northern border.How Benjamin Netanyahu and the Extremist Far Right are Leading Israel Along a Path to Ruin

Perhaps most significant, and difficult to quantify, is Israel's loss of international support as a result of the ferocious bombing campaigning in Gaza. Those who have suffered most are not the HAMAS terrorists but innocent civilians. The international loss of legitimacy, especially in light of the Netanyahu government's failure to reign in West Bank settlers on the West Bank whose terrorist attacks have wounded and killed innocent Palestinians (more than 600 deaths as of this writing) and destroyed their property and crops. The war is in Gaza, but Palestinians in the West Bank are targeted with violence too 

Israel will find it difficult, if not impossible, to reestablish its international legitimacy in the short term.  That Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Defense Minster, Yoav Gallant, have been indicted on war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court in the Hague, further undermines Israel's credibility in prosecuting the war against HAMAS in the Gaza Strip.  

This image captures Gaza's destruction during the Israel-HAMAS war

 
The current status of Palestinians is dire. With over 80% of the Gaza Strip completely destroyed, most of the two and a half million residents lack homes, jobs, food, healthcare and security. In addition to the 47,000 plus Gazans who have been killed, many residents have lost limbs and youth have no access to education because all schools and universities have been destroyed. These maps and images show what's left of Gaza, 1 year into the Israel-Hamas war

In the West Bank , Palestinians have been subject to increasing violence from settler terrorists who destroy their houses (which subsequently aren't legally allowed to be rebuilt) and crops and even murder them. Over 600 West Bank Palestinians have lost their lives since the HAMAS October 2023 attack on Israel. Mapping 1,800 Israeli settler attacks in the West Bank since October 2023

The Palestine National Authority (PNA) is headed by an 89 year old autocrat, Mahmoud Abbas, who hasn't allowed elections to be held in the PNA's areas of control in the West Bank since 2013. President Abbas is extremely corrupt, diverting millions of dollars in funds designated for the Palestinian people to his sons, Yasser and Tariq. His current approval rating hovers at 13%.

The Gaza War presents the opportunity to remove Abbas from his illegally held office and create a new PNA leadership.  One name which has been proposed is Dr. Salam Fayyad, who served as Prime Minister from 2007 until 2013, but who was removed from office by Abbas because he wouldn't support the PNA president's corrupt behavior. Fayyad, who holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Texas at Austin, is highly respected among West Bank Palestinians and internationally.Salam Fayyad

The need to move quickly to rebuild Gaza Recently, President Donald Trump proposed that Gaza's Palestinian residents be relocated to Jordan and Egypt. His rationale for this proposal is that Gaza has been largely destroyed and thus it's best to "clean out the territory."  Unsurprisingly, this proposal has been universally rejected by all Arab countries.  However, with the Gaza Strip in ruin, the idea of removing its residents does possess some logic, however perverse. Trump says to ‘clean out’ Gaza, urges Arab countries to take more refugees

Thus, time is of the essence.  The longer the Gazan Palestinians remain without water, electricity and housing, the louder the chorus of those who want to remove them from their homes and land will become.

Here is where the "rubber meets the road."  If the Arab states, who have manipulated the Palestinian cause for decades to serve their own national interests, truly want to promote peace and a meaningful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, they must put their money where their mouth is - walk the walk, not just talk the talk. 

Saudi leader Muhammad Bin Salman would do better using the $600 billion he has promised Donald Trump he will invest in the United States to rebuild Gaza instead. Qatar and the UAE should follow suit. Quick action by these wealthy Arab oil producers could have the critical impact of cutting off the Israeli far-right's attempt to seize yet more Palestinian land.Saudi Prince promises Donald Trump $600 billion trade, investment boost

The Syrian Earthquake: What Role Should the United States Play الزلزال السوري: ما هو الدور الذي يجب أن تلعبه الولايات المتحدة؟

Syrians celebrating the downfall of Bashar al-Asad's regime

The Middle East never fails to surprise. The despotic al-Asad regime's fall is no exception. No one would have predicted in late November that the regime was about to be toppled, and then in little more than a week. Now that Bashar al-Asad and the sclerotic regime he ruled is gone, what is Syria's future? How will the ancien regime's fall affect the larger Middle East and beyond? What role should the US play in a post-Asad Syria?

Above all, the central question is whether the new regime, dominated by the Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS), will be able to rule a country which has experienced 13 years of a devastating civil war.  Statements made by HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara' (nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad al-Julani) have emphasized that the new order will not be based on radical Islamism to which HTS once adhered. Ideology, he says, is one thing, ruling a multi-ethnic and multi-confessional state is another. If symbols matter, al-Shara' has already shed his military uniform for a suit and tie. 

al-Shara' has sought to reassure Syria's minority populations, especially Christians, Alawites and Druze, that they have nothing to fear from the new regime and that their traditions and religious practices will be respected. HTS' relation to Syria's Kurdish population (the Rojava or "Western" Kurds) is less clear. Its military, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), control one-third of the northeastern portion of the country. 

The threat posed by the Islamic State The new Syrian regime lacks adequate human resources to rule the entire country. This means that a power vacuum has opened in different parts of the country. There is a reason why, shortly after Bashar al-Asad was deposed, the United States bombed Islamic State camps in Central and Eastern Syria. The US messaged the IS that it would not tolerate the change in regimes leading to a return of the IS' "caliphate" which could plunge Syria into yet another protracted conflict.

Most importantly for the Syrian people's sake, it is critical that the Islamic State not be allowed to capture territory that it once controlled after Syria's Arab Spring uprisings. But the concern with the reestablishment of the Islamic State also has regional and international implications. Should the Islamic State reconstitute itself, it would present a threat not only to Syria but to Iraq, Jordan and other parts of the Arab world as well. 

Currently, there are 60,000 Islamic State fighters and their families being held in prisons in Eastern Syria, mostly in the al-Hawl (al-Hol) Camp and the al-Hasakah Prison.  Despite limited resources, it is the SDF which struggles to keep order inside the detention centers, particular at the large al-Hawl Camp. Few countries have agreed to repatriate their imprisoned citizens, leaving the Rojava Kurds to deal with the problem. CENTCOM Commander General Michael Kurilla says ISIS Detainees are "an army in waiting"

The Future of the Rojava Kurds Syria's Kurdish population in the north and northeast of the country was horribly mistreated by the al-Asad regime, both Hafez al-Asad (1973-2000), and then Bashar. The Ba'thist regime in Damascus considered the Kurds non-Syrian and refused them citizenship and landownership rights. Under the al-Asad regimes, Kurds could lose their land at any time and be imprisoned without cause.

The Arab Spring uprisings, which began in Syria in 2011, allowed the Rojava Kurds to break away from Damascus' control and establish a quasi-state in 3 non-contiguous areas along the Turkish border in the north and northeastern parts of the country. The Kurds, in cooperation with local Arabs, established the Autonomous Administration in North and North East Syria (ANEES) in 2012.  

When United States, Iraqi and Iranian forces began their assault on the Islamic State, the SDF's military arm, the YPG (People's Protection Unit), which includes male and female units, played an essential role in helping to fight and later defeat the Islamic State.  The YPG was able to prevent the Islamic State from seizing the city of Kobane on the Northern border with Turkey after a 9 month battle in 2015. Their forces rolled into Raqqa, the Islamic States's capital, which they seized in 2017.The People’s Protection Units’ Branding Problem Syrian Kurds and Potential Destabilization in Northeastern Syria

Why do the Rojava Kurds need international protection? The reasons are domestic, regional and international. Most importantly, the Kurds have been critical in preventing the return of the Islamic State.  Should they lose international support, particularly from the United States which maintains a force of almost 2000 troops in Eastern Syria, the SDF would have difficulty containing a resurgent Islamic State.

When the Islamic State began to expand its grip on large areas of east and central Syria, the SDF, working with American and Iraqi forces, played a key role in the ultimate collapsed of the Islamic State's so-called Caliphate in March 2019. The ability of the SDF and allied forces, such as its female militia the YPJ, earned the AANES the gratitude of all ethnic and confessional groups in eastern and northern Syria for ridding the region of Islamic State terrorists.

Erdogan, HTS and the Islamic State The two villains in Syria's ongoing political crisis have been Bashar al-Asad and President Recip Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.  Bashar al-Asad ruled a tyrannical regime. His war on the Syrian people led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands and the displacement of half the country's population.  His prisons, such as the notorious Saydnaya prison in Damascus, were known as slaughterhouses where tens of thousands of prisoners died under horrible conditions, including the widespread use of torture.

But Bashar is finished, having fled Syria on December 8th for Russia where he was granted political asylum.  The key leader standing in the way of a potentially positive transition to a more tolerant and even democratic country is Turkiye's Recip Tayyip Erdogan.  Turkiye's president is determined to destroy the experiment in self-rule that the Kurds and other ethnic groups enjoy in the AANES.

Erdogan's attitude towards Islamist extremists has been highly equivocal. As an example, during the 9 month siege of Kobane, Turkish troops stood by with their tanks overlooking the town from the Turkish side of the border while hundreds of SDF fighters were wounded and died repulsing continued Islamic State assaults. Had the Turkish army intervened on the side of the SDF, the IS would have been quickly defeated.

Because Erdogan has been a strong backer of HTS, and funds Syrian militias, such as the Syrian National Army, whose name belies its complete control by Turkiye's armed forces, he now wields significant influence in post-Aaad Syria. Erdogan has threatened on numerous occasions that he will invade northeastern Syria if the SDF do not lay down their arms. Speaking to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan said on December 24th that: “The separatist murderers will either bid farewell to their weapons, or they will be buried in Syrian lands along with their weapons.” Erdogan says YPG ‘will be buried’ in Syria if it doesn’t lay down arms

The US role in post-Asad Syria. The US is central to preventing a reconstituted Islamic State from gaining power again in Syria.  Not only is the US the most important military force in Eastern Syria, but it has the backing of NATO and the European Union in containing the Islamic State. If the new Syrian regime wants to be internationally recognized and receive the desperately needed foreign aid to rebuild the Syrian state, it will depend in this process on the US and the West.

The US maintains a force of roughly 2000 troops in Eastern Syria. It should make clear to the new regime in Damascus that it has no desire to permanently station troops in Syria. Because the HTS has fought the Islamic State in the area it controlled surrounding the city of Idlib in northern Syria, it is committed to eliminating the IS as is the US and its Western and Arab allies, Iraq and Jordan. 

Meanwhile, the chaos caused by the rapid collapse of the Syrian Army in face of the HTS attacks meant that considerable weaponry was abandoned.  Many Syrian Army units saw little reason to confront the HTS and simply abandoned their posts, shedding uniforms and weapons. Thus, a large amount of weapons fell into the hands of Islamic State terrorists. Their threat to Syria's new regime has only increased since Bashar al-Asad's ouster. Fears Grow of Islamic State’s Re-Emergence in Syria

Working together with the new regime to defeat the IS would serve to create new ties and trust between the US and the HTS. A relationship of trust will be crucial if the US is to wean the new regime away from its traditional dependence on Turkiye. Erdogan will use every tool he has to use the HTS to undermine the AANES and the SDF in Eastern Turkey.

Beyond establishing a working relation ship with Ahmad Shara' and the HTS regime, the US must make clear to Erdogan that it will not tolerate a Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria. If the SDF was attacked by Turkish forces and many of its fighters killed or wounded, that would constitute a severe setback in the effort to prevent the Islamic State from using the resulting power vacuum to reestablish more bases in central and Eastern Syria.

Donald Trump has indicated that he "wants nothing to do" with the current political upheaval in Syria.  Fortunately, both Senator Marco Rubio, Secretary of State designate, and former congressman Michael Waltz, National Security Advisor designate, both understand the danger that the Islamic State still poses.  

Their job should be to convince Trump that withdrawing US forces from Syria would have grave consequences for Syria and the larger MENA region. It would send a message to Islamic State terrorists in Iraq that they now enjoy greater latitude of action in north central Iraq as well as in Syria.  Trump must be informed that use of airpower again the IS is no substitute for American boots on the ground.

Even before he assumes office, Donald Trump is learning that isolationism is not a viable policy when it comes to dealing with terrorism.  The Islamic State continues to mount attacks in in Syria and Iraq and has large sums of money hidden away with which to purchase arms and compensate its fighters. The IS-inspired attack in New Orleans in the early morning hours of New Year's Day, which killed 14 people and wounded dozens, underscores how its global reach still threatens countries around the world. What to Know About the Islamic State

Climate Migration and the Populist Threat to Europe

Egyptian migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea

The Climate Emergency is upon us. Extreme weather events, droughts, wildfires and rising sea levels which were predicted to occur between 20-230 and 2050 are already running rampant globally.  No region is most prone to global warming than the Middle East (MENA).  What are the political implications of the Climate Emergency for MENA and what will be the affect on regions beyond?

The most significant impact of the Climate Emergency on the MENA region is to dramatically increase climate migration.  The core problem is increasing temperatures and drought which are producing a regional water crisis.  In Iraq, home of the storied Fertile Crescent, the country's water shortage is reaching a crisis level.  Salt water from the Mediterranean is encroaching on the Nile's 2 tributaries rendering adjacent farm land uncultivable. Jordan's aquifer is being depleted while Tunisia's agricultural sector is facing collapse due to lack of irrigation. Jordan gets $250m funding to tackle water crisis

In the Gulf region, Iran has been forced to move residents 2 of its southwest provinces becase water resources have dried up.  It is rated as the country with fourth most sever water crisis.

Middle East is home to 1/2 billion with roughly 40% under the age of 18.  The combination of a "youth bulge," authoritarian rule, widespread corruption and few options for employment without "wasta" (elite connections), MENA youth are highly discontented. Add the deleterious impact of rapid climate change, ad we see a toxic brew.

Many regimes in the Middle East used their purported revolutionary bona fides to establish political legitimacy. While Nasser's Arab socialism, or the Ba'th Party's vow in Syrian and Iraq to reestablish the glory of the ancient Arab-Islamic empires, or the National Liberation Front (FLN) in Algeria. 

The so-called Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the few regimes which still keeps up the illusion of revolutionary change.  However, its "revolutionary" activity is to have crated a network of militias in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen and to have propped up the sclerotic regime of Bashar al-Asad in Syria. Domestically, its "revolutionary" activity involves arresting, imprisoning ans sexually abusing women who fail to adhere to the regime's hijab law and to executing males who dare to criticize the regime's repression. 

Instead, most regimes in the Middle East, whether republican or monarchical, no longer pretend to be pursuing major political-structural change. Ideology is dead. Instead, a corrupt crony capitalism defines the nature of rule in the MENA region. Even in Turkey, which once posed a "neo-Ottoman" Islamism, ideology has given way to force and imprisonment. Antonio Gramsci once defined hegemony as "an iron fist clothed in velvet."  In the MENA region today, no regime enjoys hegemonic control.

In his classic study, Exit, Voice and Loyalty, Albert O. Hirschman argued that firms or political systems in decline offered its members 3 options, leave the troubled venue, protests against the crisis, or keeping a stiff upper lip and accepting the status quo. For youth in the MENA region, protest has been violently suppressed, whether the Arab Spring uprisings or the Green Revolution in Iran. For youth who desire a better future, exit is the only possible response 

Even the 2005 Cedars Revolution in Lebanon, which forced the Syrian Army o leave Lebanon, and the 2022 Hirak protests in Algeria, which ousted President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika, failed to bring about meaningful political change. Tunisia, the one purported success story of the Arab Spring uprisings, reverted to authoritarians under the rule of President Ka'is Said in 2021.  Under these circumstances - political repression and unemployment or underemployment, the climate crisis will only exacerbate the problems facing youth in the MENA region.  

There are 3 routes to Europe for migrants leaving the MENA region. Two are no longer viable. It is difficult to cross Turkey and Greece and then travel to the European Union through the the Balkans. Crossing the Mediterranean from Morocco to Spain is also no longer an option given border controls in place in both countries. Thus, the main route is to cross the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy, either to the Island of Lambadusa to to Sicily.

Officials have struggled to estimate the number of migrants who have crossed the Mediterranean Sea.  Many migrants have travelled in non-seaworthy vessels and died as a result. We do know that 157,631 migrants arrived in Italy in 2023.  The vast majority of migrants who leave North Africa do so from the beaches of Tunisia and to a lesser extent, from Libya

Saving American Democracy: The Most Consequential Election of our Lifetime!

Has any presidential candidate in US history ever made such a threat?

What makes a strong country? The unity of its people, their commitment to respect one another, the equal treatment of all citizens under the rule of law, the right of political participation for all citizens, and tolerance for ethnic, racial and religious diversity. These qualities create a powerful sense of community which engenders trust, a bedrock upon which democracy rests. 

What makes a weak country? Social disunity, "culture wars," the refusal to acknowledge difference - whether political, religious, ethnic or cultural - and the feeling by one demographic that it has a monopoly on virtue. Thus, its values and definition of the nation should prevail over all other groups. Once a particular demographic decides its social political cultural views must prevail over all others, democracy lacks the fertile soil it needs to survive.  As a result, it gradually withers away.

It is this context which leads to the question: Why is the November 2024 presidential election the most consequential in our lifetime?  The answer is that our democracy and the rule of law, the future of the planet, and the American economy will all be in jeopardy if Donald Trump becomes president of the United States. Why is this the case?

Democracy under threat Donald Trump demonstrated his contempt for democracy and the US Constitution during his term in office. He is the only president in US history to have organized efforts to subvert a presidential election. His mobilization of a crowd on January 6, 2021 to prevent the certification of Joe Biden, elected in fair and free election, was the first time in American history that a sitting president tried to prevent the peaceful transfer of power to his successor. Bob Woodward on ‘The Trump Tapes’ we haven’t heard

Recently, we learned that considerable financial support was provided by a variety of organizations for the January 6 demonstration. As we know, it turned into a violent attack designed to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden as POTUS. Police officers were severely injured by the mob which breached the US Capitol and one died as a result. Congressional representatives, including Vice President Mike Pence, had to fear for their lives and the Capitol building experienced serious property damage. New evidence unsealed of how Trump's Jan. 6, 2021 rally was funded

Trump's incitement of a mob attack on the US Capitol was accompanied by the creation of fake elector slates in several battleground states. Phony slates from Georgia, Arizona Michigan and other states argued that they, the supporters of Donald Trump, were the true electors. Some of these fraudulent electors are now on trial. 

Yet Trump has been able to delay his own legal reckoning through decisions. He has been helped by the Supreme Court, to which he appointed 3 justices who have formed a pro-Trump majority, and by a decision by a Florida district court judge, Aileen Cannon, who he also appointed, to dismiss the Department of Justice case of stolen government documents which were illegally transferred to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate. 

Trump's consistent claim that the 2020 election was "stolen,"and his refusal even today to concede that he lost, have undermined democracy in the eyes of many Americans, especially members of the Republican Party. Over two-thirds of Republican voters actually believe that Trump won the 2020 election. As noted above, trust constitutes a precious form of social capital in any democracy. For a candidate for the American presidency to knowingly undermine such trust disqualifies that candidate from holding public office.

The Trump economy  Compounding Trump's threat to democratic governance was his incompetence  in running the United States. There continue to be voters who say that the economy defines their choice for POTUS. They point to the economy while Trump was in office when they say their financial condition was better than today. 

Trump claims he created a strong economy. Not true. Trump never admitted that he benefitted from the strong economy he inherited from the Obama administration. It was President Obama, not Trump, who pulled the US out of the global recession of 2008. Trump was the only president since Herbert Hoover in 1932 to leave office with less jobs in the American economy than when he became president.  

One reason the US economy lost jobs was the tariffs Trump imposed while in office. His policy sparked retaliatory tariffs which damaged the US economy causing a loss of jobs.  Trump says that, if elected, he will impose a new round of massive tariffs. Virtually all economists argue that the blanket tariffs Trump advocates will raise prices in the US, imposing in effect a sales tax of over $4000 for a family of four.  In other words, tariff is another word for tax.

Despite his promise to stem the offshoring of US manufacturing jobs,Trump neither created new manufacturing jobs nor did he stop their offshoring during his presidency (remember his promise to keep Carrier Air Conditioning jobs in the US after he took office?).  Trump vetoed a minimum wage bill and applauded Elon Musk when he fired Tesla workers who tried to establish a union. A friend of the working man and woman? Not at all. 

Trump's Covid-19 pandemic response Trump's policy on the Covid-19 pandemic was a disaster which caused many unnecessary deaths (Remember his suggestion that people with Covid-19 inject themselves with a cleaning agent?).  Trump's refusal to accept the advice of medical experts such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, who had led efforts to combat contagious diseases at the Center for Diseases Control in Atlanta since the 1980s, because members of his MAGA base, such as Florida governor Ron DeSantis, opposed vaccinations. As a result of Trump's politicization of the pandemic, many lives were lost which could have been saved. Coronavirus: Outcry after Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment

How the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 will dismantle the US government

Project 2025 Despite his denials of knowing anything about Project 2025, when 78% of the contributors are former members of his administration. As Steven Rattner notes in his analysis of the 900 plus page document published by the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation, "The plan would also raise taxes for American families making under $170,000 a year — nearly tripling them for a family earning $75,000 — while cutting them substantially for those with higher incomes." Project 2025 Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise

Rattner goes on to point out that the corporate tax rate, which Trump slashed from 36 to 21%, would be reduced still further.  The tax on capital gains would likewise be reduced, further benefitting the wealthy. Those middle class voters who think Trump will help their financial bottom line are sorely mistaken. How Project 2025 Would Change the Country 

Medical coverage for the American people would be significantly reduced should Trump be reelected.  In 1921, almost 95 million people were enrolled in Medicaid which equals about 5% of the US population. Lifetime enrollment would be capped causing many to lose their healthcare protection. Project 2025 Blueprint Also Includes Draconian Cuts to Medicaid 

The Head Start Program which primarily benefits rural counties would be cut. As Rattner points out, the share of Head Start childcare centers is 45% in very rural counties and 32% in rural counties, and only 13% in metropolitan areas. For rural Americans, voting for Donald Trump is. as my late mother used to say, "cutting off your nose to spite your face."

Project 2025 also attacks our public education system, both municipal and charter schools.  It would transfer taxpayer funds to private schools, many promoting a politicized religious education.  Not only would this undermine our national sense of community but promoting more divisiveness, but deprive poorer school districts, already suffering from lack of resources, of funds.

The abortion pill would be banned the drug mifepristone which is used to prevent the onset of pregnancy.  Project 2025, written almost exclusively by men, indicates no support for women's reproductive heath care rights. Indeed,  stringent anti-abortion bills, such as in Texas and Georgia, have already led to there deaths of women who needed to terminate their pregnancies due to health reasons because local physicians were afraid they would be prosecuted and jailed if they aborted those pregnancies.     

The Heritage Foundation is known for its hostility to labor unions. While Project 2025 contains a section on labor but offers no material benefits to the working men and women of our country.  It proposes top reduce the budget of the Department of Labor and restrict the powers of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC). It strongly condemns efforts to make the American work forces more diversified, implicitly marginalizing workers who are women and people of color.

Project 2025's conclusion to its section on labor (p. 681) shows no attention to the US government's need to train American workers in the skills needed for the 21st century economy, no support for laborers unionizing to protect their wages and working conditions, and no concern about how huge wealth inequality (which the  Project will dramatically increase) adversely affects workers

"The good of the American family is at the heart of conservative labor policy recommendations. The longstanding tradition of a strong work ethic in American culture must be encouraged and strengthened by policies that promote family-sustaining jobs. By eliminating the policies promoted by the DEI agenda, promoting pro-life policies that support family life, expanding available apprenticeship programs including by encouraging the role of religious organizations in apprenticeships, making family-sustaining jobs accessible, simplifying employment requirements, and allowing employers to prefer American citizens when making hiring decisions, among the other policy recommendations discussed above, we can begin to secure a future in which the American worker, and by extension the American family, can thrive and prosper."

Finally, Project 2025 would greatly expand the president's power by stripping Federal employees of their civil service protections. Trump would be able to fire government employees at will and replace them with toady loyalists. 

In short, a Trump victory on November 5th would result in a serious negative impact on the United States. It would produce greater divisiveness and conflict in American society, undermine the economic fortunes of the middle and working classes, weaken US alliances like NATO and ties to the European union designed to prevent foreign enemies like Russia and China from threatening our country and its democracy, and further marginalize the "Other," namely, women, people of color, and members of the LGBTQ+ community. 

Trump has made clear that, if elected, his second administration will be dominated by three "Rs": reviling, revenge and retribution.  Analyses of Trump's speeches since 2016 demonstrate an increased calls for violence against those he perceives as enemies. Trump has promised to appoint loyalists to the Department of Justice which he will use to prosecute his opponents and put them in jail. This plan, which has repeatedly stated during his campaign rallies, has all the hallmarks of authoritarian rule.We analyzed 9 years of Trump political speeches, and his violent rhetoric has increased dramatically

Through imposing authoritarian rule on the United States, not addressing the growing climate crisis, and enacting policies which will cripple our public education system, Trump will deprive us of our most important investment in America's future - our youth. The "generation in waiting" - will become disillusioned with politics and be prevented from developing their aspirations and the initiatives we need to keep America great as we move further into the 21st century.

How Benjamin Netanyahu and the Extremist Far Right are Leading Israel Along a Path to Ruin

HAMAS' brutal attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, shocked the world. With young people at a music festival shot in cold blood, members of kibbutzim - many of whom had been working for peace - burned in their homes, and hostages taken into Gaza, including the very elderly, Israel engendered widespread sympathy and international support for destroying HAMAS and ending its rule in Gaza.

Subsequently, however, Israel has lost much of the support expressed at the time of the HAMAS incursion. Countless countries have heavily criticized its response to the attack which has destroyed 80% of Gaza's infrastructure and killed more than 41,000 Palestinians, the vast majority of whom are innocent civilians who have nothing to do with HAMAS' brutal policies.

HAMAS' ease in crossing the border into Israel exposed a colossal intelligence failure. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it was revealed, had ignored warnings from the military of a possible attack in July 2023 while on vacation. Despite HAMAS' creation of a mock-up of an Israeli village next to its border with Israel, where fighters had been training for over a year and a half prior to the attack, the Israeli intelligence community didn't believe the terrorist organization posed a threat.

Following the attack, it was also revealed that Netanyahu had been funneling millions of dollars in aid, donated by Qatar, to the HAMAS terrorists. His goal was to weaken the Palestinian National Authority by propping up HAMAS and thwart the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. ‘Buying Quiet’: Inside the Israeli Plan That Propped Up Hamas

At first, it seemed that Israel's overwhelming air and fire power would quickly destroy HAMAS. However, as many analysts warned, Israel was being drawn into a trap.  Their predictions have come true. The Gaza War is now a year old. Israel has significantly degraded HAMAS as a military force, but has not been able to definitively defeat it. Despite sharp criticism, Netanyahu has refused to articulate a "day after" proposal for ending the Gaza War.

What does the year long Gaza War imply for Israel's future? In this post I make several arguments. First, Israel has lost a significant amount of legitimacy in the international community. Its ferocious bombing of Gaza has undermined a number perceptions of Israel as a result of its bombing campaign in Gaza. Second, the policies Benjamin Netanyahu has pursued in the fight against HAMAS have deepened political and cultural divides in Israeli society. 

Third, fighting a lengthy two front war, both in Gaza and against Hizballah in Lebanon, while sending security forces to protect settlers who are seizing Palestinian land in the West Bank, has placed a serious strain on the Israeli economy. Fourth, the war has damaged Israel's psyche. Finally, Israel has isolated itself from the Arab world, making it more vulnerable to Iranian attacks.

The end of the David vs. Goliath myth As the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have engaged in a ferocious bombing campaign in Gaza, and more recently in Lebanon, it is clear that Israel possesses a vast superiority in air power, intelligence, military technology, and ground forces compared to its adversaries. Thus, the traditional view of Israel as a small state surrounded by powerful enemies  - a view that was already undermined by its decisive victories in the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars - has been shattered once and for all.

The end of the idea of Israel as the sole democracy in the Middle East  Before the October 2023 HAMAS attack, Israel's democracy was under severe threat as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in an effort to please the extremist far right parties in his coalition on which his government depends, sought to eliminate the power of Israel's Supreme Court. 

Because the court is the only institution which can check the power of the Knesset, Israel's unicameral legislature, hundreds of thousands of Israelis mounted demonstration's for 33 weeks to protest these efforts. It was only a national general strike, which shut down the Israeli economy, which forced Netanyahu to put his attack on the Supreme Court on hold.

Efforts by the Netanyahu government to curb foreign press coverage of the Gaza War, its failure to curb violent attacks by West Bank settlers against Palestinians, which have resulted in over 600  deaths since the October 7th HAMAS attack, and the destruction of their homes and crops, demonstrates an absence of the rule of law. The loss of employment by Palestinian Israelis who have either expressed sympathy for civilian deaths in Gaza or criticized Netanyahu's war policies underscore still further the curtailing of free speech by Israeli citizens.  

Undermining the Israeli economy. What has largely slipped under radar in media reporting on the Gaza War's damage to Israel's economy. The year long war with HAMAS, which has now extended to Hizballah in Lebanon and the West Bank, has has had a serious negative financial impact. In 2019, for example, tourism accounted for $8.5bn in national revenue. That revenue has now largely dried up.  Since the war began, tourism has dropped by 75% War in Gaza has plunged Israel’s tourism industry into a crisis it will struggle to recover from

Much more damaging is the cost to the Israel's economy resulting from the large numbers of its citizens being called up for military duty. Maintaining a small standing army, Israel instead depends on reservists who train regularly. At least 350,000 reservists have been called for duty since the Gaza War began. With hundreds of thousands of Israelis leaving their jobs to fight on in a three front war, many businesses have been hard pressed to function. Israel-Gaza War: As war widens and costs mount, Israel’s economy is in ‘serious danger’

The overall economic impact  While Israel possesses military superiority, the one area in which it is deficient is in its small population. Add to this the large number of male religious Jews, the Haredim - who study Torah and are exempt from military duty , and the scope oif the problem is clear. 

According to the Bank of Israel, Israel's military operations are costing the Israeli economy $600M a week due to work absences, according to the Bank of Israel, about 6% of the weekly GDP.  The bank's estimate don't reflect the total damage to the economy or damages caused by the absence of Palestinian and foreign workers. Israel's treasury minister indicated that the Gaza war's daily cost is about $246 million per day. Over 100,000 Palestinian workers are no longer employed by Israeli companies.  

After the war began, it was estimated that if fighting continued for eight to twelve months, the cost of the war to the Israeli economy would be more than $50bn, or close to 10% of GDP, according to Calcalist, the daily Israeli business and economics newspaper. 

Citing early Ministry of Finance figures, Calcalist's estimates assumed the war would be limited to Gaza. It did not account for further escalation, such as with Hizballah and West Bank Palestinians, especially youth, who have responded to settlement attacks. It also assumed that the 350,000  reservists called up for military duty would soon return to work. 

The war's has already reduced Israel's GDP growth from 6.5% in the year before the HAMAS attack to its current 2%. The war is expected to cost Israel's economy over $400bn over the next decade.  Consumer spending, imports, and exports have all declined significantly, adversely affecting Israel's credit rating Moody's Ratings downgrades Israel's ratings to Baa1, maintains negative outlook

In 2015, the RAND Corporation conducted a study to determine the long term impact if Israel became involved in a protracted war. It argued that 90 percent of the economic shock for Israel would be indirect effects: reduced investment, a disrupted labor market, and slowed productivity growth. From the Ashes of Hamas-Israel War, Can Economics Drive Peace?

Agriculture and the construction sectors One of the areas hit hardest in the Israeli economy are the agricultural and construction sectors.  Palestinian workers from the West Bank, and to a lesser degree from Gaza, played a central role in planting and harvesting crops. In Israel, these workers have been central to the construction industry, including, ironically, building new settlements on the West Bank on land seized from Palestinians.

Despite attempts to recruit Indian and Sri Lankan workers, its remains unclear how Israel will be able to sustain its agricultural production and construction projects. After the HAMAS attack, Thai, Nepali and Tanzanian workers returned home. As it stands now, much of Israel's agricultural production will be lost due to the lack of labor to harvest it. As Agriculture Minister Oren Lavi noted, Israel is facing the greatest agricultural crisis since it was founded in 1948. War plunges Israeli agriculture into the greatest crisis in its history

Another negative impact of the Gaza War has been the attacks by Yemen's Houthis rebels on ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab as they enter the Red Sea. The Houthis claim they are preventing ships headed for Israel using the Red Sea in expressing solidarity with Palestinians being bombarded in Gaza.

Despite an international military coalition led by the United States, and attacks by Israel's air force on Houthi bases, the shelling and drone attacks on Red Sea shipping continue.  The dramatic reduction in shipping led the Israel Port Authority in Eliat to declare bankruptcy. Port of Eilat declares bankruptcy

Although Israel has killed Hasan Nasrallah and decimated the top leadership of Hizballah, the only way to end its launching of rockets into Israel is for the IDF to invade southern Lebanon.  However, as the Israeli occupation of south Lebanon between 1982 and 2000, and the 2006 Israel-Hizballah War has shown, an incursion into Lebanon will be extremely costly in terms of human losses on both sides. Can Israel’s economy survive an all-out war with Hizbullah

The Israeli psyche is hurting An unquantifiable impact of the Gaza War on Israel is the toll it is taking on the country's psyche. A number of Israelis who disagree with the war have left Israel. Large numbers of Israelis have continued to organzine large ongoing demonstrations. Angry with Benjamin Netanyahu, they have demanded that he implement an immediate ceasefire in Gaza so the remaining Israeli hostages who are still alive can return home.

Other Israelis who have been forced to leave from area along the northern border with Lebanon due to the rocket fire from Hizballah criticize the Netanyahu government for not clearing south Lebanon of Hizballah forces so they can return to their homes. Complaints have also been expressed by large number of Israelis who see the cost of living on the rise.

Yet the majority of Israelis have failed to confront the traditional response to the ongoing conflict with the Palestinians and their surrounding Arab neighbors. Responding to his participation the June 1967 Arab Israeli War, in which he lost a many friends, Israeli filmmaker, Ilan Ziv, directed and produced a powerful film, Abraham and Isaac (Icarus Films, 1977).

The film's purpose was to challenge the notion of 'ayn briera ("there is no choice").  In other words, Israel was condemned to a perpetual armed struggle with the Arab world which sought to destroy it.  For Ziv, the "no choice" mentality, namely to engage in armed conflict with the Arab world was self-defeating. His film's prediction that continuous conflict would severely damage Israel in the future has come to pass.

Abraham and Isaac's theme was the core of a recent commentary by the distinguished Haaretz newspaper commentator, Gideon Levy. He calls again into question of whether Israel can survive if it continues to embrace the notion of 'ayn breira.  Leyy poses the critical question: Do Israelis want to become a country that lives on Blood? 

In his column, Levy argues that: "The daily crimes of the occupation are already less relevant. Over the past year, a new reality of mass killings and crimes of an entirely different scale has emerged. We are in a genocidal reality, the blood of tens of thousands of people has flowed." The question remains: Will Israel continue to be embroiled in a "Forever War"? Israels Must Ask Themselves if They're Willing to Live in a Country That Lives on Blood.  

The danger the Netanyahu government poses to Israel  Fully cognizant that it was HAMAS' terrorist attack which started the war in Gaza, countless experts have argued that Netanyahu could have pursued the war without the massive destruction of Gaza, the 41,000 deaths, and hundreds of thousands wounded. 

But Netanyahu realizes that it was his failure which allowed HAMAS to attack Israel in the first place. He also heads a government of far right ultranationalist theocrats whose policies the majority of Israelis do not support, e.g., the transfer of funds by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from their legally designated uses to illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank. 

These far right cabinet members, Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of National Security, and Belazel Smotrich, Minister of Finance in particular, refuse to continuance any ceasefire with HAMAS. If Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire, they threaten to bring down the government. They don't care about the fate of the remaining Israeli hostages.

Without continuing the Gaza War, Netanyahu fears that his far right extremists s will withdraw their support and he will lose his prime ministership.  Under indictment for corruption charges since 2019, Netanyahu fears that once he is no longer prime minister, he will be subject to trail again and possibly sent to jail.

The challenge of the Haredim. Israel's Supreme Court recently decided that the Haredim are no longer exempt from military duty.  This resulted in sharp rebukes from rabbis that thre decision was unjust.  Because the Haredim will constitute a majority of Israel's population by 2050, how can the military function if a large number of male Israelis refuse to serve in the military?

Israel's secular-religious divide is becoming ever more sharply defined. Secular Israelis, who provide the bulk of the country's tax revenues (because the Haredim don't work) and serve in the IDF, where they put themselves in harms way, are highly resentful of a "two tier" system of citizenship.  Some citizens, namely the Haredim, receive benefits such as the government's subsidies who neither pay taxes nor serve in the armed forces.

The future of Israel  Israel faces three threats in the future.  First, continued conflict will have a negative impact on foreign direct investment.  Despite Israel's reputation as a "startup country," foreign firms will not find a conflict zone to be an appealing investment venue.  

Given the charges against Prime Minister Netanyahu for engaging in genocide by the International Criminal Court, the first sanctions by the US on West Bank settlers who have attacked and killed Palestinian residents, and the rising crescendo of criticism throughout the world at the devastation being wreaked on Palestinian civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, and now Lebanon, will further disincentive foreign firms to invest in Israel.

Arab states which would find cooperating with Israel in financial initiatives and military purchases are unable or unwilling to participate in such ventures for fear of the Arab street. This barrier to rapprochement with powerful Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is yet another ares where the Israeli economy will be hurt.

The solution If Israel had pushed for the establishment of a Palestinian state after the the 1993 Oslo Accords, and before Yitzhak Rabin's assassination by a far right Israeli terrorist, I would not be writing this post today.  Palestinians have legitimate rights to self determination as voted on by the United Nations in 1947 through resolution 183 which created two states in Palestine- one Arab and one Jewish.

Attachment to the notion of 'ayn breira cannot bring a powerful end toi the Israel-Palestine dispute.  As long as the extremist far right, which seeks to transform Israel into a theocracy, remains in power, conflict will continue. Israel may win thecurrent battle with HAMAS and Hizballah, but lose the war in the process. 

By failing to pursue a peace with moderate Palestinians, who already agreed in 1993 at Oslo to recognize Israel and live side by side with the Jewish state, Israel may be signing its own death warrant. Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All